Global Economic Dynamics Affect Rupiah Exchange Rate, RI Denies Issues of Economic Weakening
Jakarta – The rupiah exchange rate against the United States (US) dollar is back in the spotlight after experiencing fluctuations in the last few weeks. However, the government and economic actors emphasized that this condition is not a reflection of the weakening of national economic fundamentals, but rather the result of ongoing global economic dynamics.
Minister of Finance (Menkeu) Sri Mulyani Indrawati said that pressure on the rupiah exchange rate throughout 2025 was more influenced by global dynamics, not because of the weakening of domestic economic fundamentals.
“The movement of the exchange rate is more reflective of global dynamics, and is not always the same or identical to Indonesia’s fundamental conditions,” said Sri Mulyani.
Data from the Ministry of Finance recorded the average rupiah exchange rate in January-March 2025 of IDR 16,443 per US dollar. Meanwhile, at the end of March, the rupiah exchange rate touched IDR 16,829 per US dollar, far from the 2025 State Budget assumption of IDR 16,000 per US dollar.
Sri Mulyani said global turmoil was the main cause of this weakening. The hope of interest rate easing by the US central bank (The Fed) has not materialized because US inflation is still high and the labor market remains strong. This has driven capital inflow back to the US, strengthening the dollar index and weakening currencies in developing countries.
The situation was exacerbated by the economic policies of US President-elect Donald Trump. His administration imposed reciprocal tariffs on around 70 trading partner countries, including countries that have a trade surplus with the US.
“The fairly aggressive tariff policy triggered turmoil in the global financial sector,” said Sri Mulyani.
Market uncertainty increased drastically, causing many currencies, including the rupiah, to adjust in the first quarter of 2025.
Although under pressure, the rupiah showed limited strengthening at the opening of trading on April 30, 2025, rising 46 points or 0.27 percent to Rp16,715 per US dollar, from the previous Rp16,761.
Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong said that this strengthening was in line with optimism regarding ongoing US tariff policy negotiations, giving hope for short-term stability for the rupiah.
The government appealed to the public to remain calm and not be easily influenced by unverified information. National economic stability, according to various indicators, is still well maintained. Anticipatory steps continue to be taken so that the rupiah remains stable and the national economy is not significantly impacted by global uncertainty.
With a strong economic foundation and solid inter-institutional coordination, Indonesia is believed to be able to overcome this challenge while maintaining the momentum of inclusive and sustainable growth.
